How the score is built
■ production (30%) ■ refining (25%) ■ trade (25%) ■ opacity (20%). Each component is 0–100, from public data (production & refining: USGS/IEA shares; trade: reconciled-trade export Herfindahl; opacity: the origin gap). Their weighted sum is the gross score, then discounted for recyclability — gross risk is cut by 0.4 × the end-of-life recycling rate (EU CRM 2023), so a highly recycled material (tungsten 42%, aluminium 32%, antimony 28%, cobalt 22%) scores lower than its raw concentration implies. Substitutability is shown alongside but not folded into the score — a high-risk material that is also hard to substitute is the more strategic.
A transparent heuristic, not an official criticality assessment; it ignores price and stockpiles.
| # | Material | score | recyc | subst. | gross components (width = weighted contribution) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beryllium, unwrought | 74 | — | high | |
| 2 | Lithium carbonate | 65 | — | high | |
| 3 | Ferro-niobium | 64 | — | medium | |
| 4 | Magnesium, unwrought | 60 | 13% | medium | |
| 5 | Gallium ⛓ | 58 | — | high | |
| 6 | Strontium carbonate | 57 | — | medium | |
| 7 | Phosphorus | 56 | — | high | |
| 8 | Rare-earth permanent magnets | 52 | 1% | high | |
| 9 | Cobalt oxides & hydroxides | 52 | 22% | high | |
| 10 | Natural graphite | 51 | 3% | high | |
| 11 | Tungsten, unwrought | 50 | 42% | high | |
| 12 | Fluorspar, >97% CaF2 | 50 | 1% | high | |
| 13 | Germanium ⛓ | 47 | 2% | high | |
| 14 | Silicon, < 99.99% | 47 | — | high | |
| 15 | Ferro-vanadium | 46 | 2% | medium | |
| 16 | Manganese ore | 46 | 9% | high | |
| 17 | Aluminium ores / bauxite | 45 | 32% | high | |
| 18 | Titanium, unwrought | 43 | 19% | medium | |
| 19 | Natural borates | 41 | 1% | medium | |
| 20 | Platinum, unwrought | 39 | 14% | high | |
| 21 | Antimony, unwrought | 35 | 28% | medium | |
| 22 | Hafnium, unwrought ⛓ | 33 | — | high | |
| 23 | Tantalum, unwrought | 33 | 1% | high | |
| 24 | Nickel, unwrought | 32 | 16% | medium | |
| 25 | Arsenic | 31 | — | medium | |
| 26 | Phosphate rock | 30 | 17% | high | |
| 27 | Feldspar | 27 | — | low | |
| 28 | Palladium, unwrought | 25 | 14% | medium | |
| 29 | Refined copper cathodes | 24 | 17% | medium | |
| 30 | Coking coal | 22 | — | high | |
| 31 | Helium | 21 | 1% | high | |
| 32 | Baryte | 15 | 1% | medium |
⛓ gallium/germanium/hafnium share one HS6 code (identical trade). Computed by build_risk.py from data.json + flows_2024.json → risk.json.