What the numbers mean
“Supply at risk” is the share of world trade the exporter currently supplies — the volume that would need re-sourcing if it stopped. The before→after HHI assumes the remaining exporters keep their current relative shares (first-order reallocation); it is not a price, substitution, or capacity model. ⚠ marks a material with no other exporter of size — where re-sourcing has nowhere obvious to go.
If China stopped exporting
China supplies >5% of world trade in 17 of the tracked materials; in 9 it supplies more than 30%. The most exposed is Tungsten, unwrought (74% of traded supply would need re-sourcing).
| Material | supply at risk | next-largest exporter | export HHI before → after |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tungsten, unwrought | 74% | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom 28% | 0.56 → 0.15 |
| Magnesium, unwrought | 71% | 🇮🇱 Israel 53% | 0.53 → 0.32 |
| Rare-earth permanent magnets | 64% | 🇯🇵 Japan 24% | 0.42 → 0.13 |
| Silicon, < 99.99% | 40% | 🇳🇴 Norway 21% | 0.20 → 0.11 |
| Natural graphite | 36% | 🇹🇿 Tanzania 42% | 0.22 → 0.21 |
| Arsenic | 34% | 🇯🇵 Japan 26% | 0.18 → 0.15 |
| Germanium | 32% | 🇩🇪 Germany 28% | 0.16 → 0.13 |
| Gallium | 32% | 🇩🇪 Germany 28% | 0.16 → 0.13 |
| Hafnium, unwrought | 32% | 🇩🇪 Germany 28% | 0.16 → 0.13 |
| Ferro-vanadium | 19% | 🇦🇹 Austria 26% | 0.13 → 0.14 |
| Cobalt oxides & hydroxides | 19% | 🇫🇮 Finland 35% | 0.18 → 0.22 |
| Tantalum, unwrought | 18% | 🇺🇸 United States 26% | 0.16 → 0.19 |
| Baryte | 18% | 🇮🇳 India 22% | 0.11 → 0.12 |
| Antimony, unwrought | 11% | 🇹🇯 Tajikistan 35% | 0.17 → 0.20 |
If Russia stopped exporting
Russia supplies >5% of world trade in 4 of the tracked materials; in 0 it supplies more than 30%. The most exposed is Palladium, unwrought (22% of traded supply would need re-sourcing).
| Material | supply at risk | next-largest exporter | export HHI before → after |
|---|---|---|---|
| Palladium, unwrought | 22% | 🇿🇦 South Africa 32% | 0.14 → 0.16 |
| Coking coal | 12% | 🇦🇺 Australia 45% | 0.21 → 0.25 |
| Nickel, unwrought | 10% | 🇳🇴 Norway 20% | 0.10 → 0.11 |
| Helium | 6% | 🇶🇦 Qatar 30% | 0.15 → 0.17 |
If Indonesia stopped exporting
Indonesia supplies >5% of world trade in 2 of the tracked materials; in 0 it supplies more than 30%. The most exposed is Coking coal (9% of traded supply would need re-sourcing).
| Material | supply at risk | next-largest exporter | export HHI before → after |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coking coal | 9% | 🇦🇺 Australia 43% | 0.21 → 0.24 |
| Nickel, unwrought | 7% | 🇳🇴 Norway 19% | 0.10 → 0.11 |
If DR Congo stopped exporting
DR Congo supplies >5% of world trade in 2 of the tracked materials; in 0 it supplies more than 30%. The most exposed is Refined copper cathodes (24% of traded supply would need re-sourcing).
| Material | supply at risk | next-largest exporter | export HHI before → after |
|---|---|---|---|
| Refined copper cathodes | 24% | 🇨🇱 Chile 26% | 0.11 → 0.10 |
| Cobalt oxides & hydroxides | 14% | 🇫🇮 Finland 33% | 0.18 → 0.22 |
If South Africa stopped exporting
South Africa supplies >5% of world trade in 8 of the tracked materials; in 3 it supplies more than 30%. The most exposed is Manganese ore (50% of traded supply would need re-sourcing).
| Material | supply at risk | next-largest exporter | export HHI before → after |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manganese ore | 50% | 🇬🇦 Gabon 53% | 0.33 → 0.34 |
| Platinum, unwrought | 37% | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom 14% | 0.17 → 0.08 |
| Fluorspar, >97% CaF2 | 30% | 🇲🇽 Mexico 55% | 0.25 → 0.33 |
| Palladium, unwrought | 25% | 🇷🇺 Russia 29% | 0.14 → 0.14 |
| Feldspar | 14% | 🇹🇷 Turkey 50% | 0.23 → 0.28 |
| Ferro-vanadium | 10% | 🇦🇹 Austria 24% | 0.13 → 0.14 |
| Phosphate rock | 6% | 🇯🇴 Jordan 26% | 0.15 → 0.17 |
| Coking coal | 5% | 🇦🇺 Australia 41% | 0.21 → 0.23 |
Computed from out/flows_2024.json by build_scenarios.py.