Nickel, unwrought

Primary uses. stainless steel; high-temperature superalloys; lithium-ion battery cathodes.

The chain — from the ground to the buyer

A critical material passes through distinct stages, and the country that leads each stage is often different — that gap is what this atlas exists to show. Each layer comes from a different public source with its own vintage, labelled below; shares are % of the world total.

● Reserves — where it could come from

Reserves are the deposits known to exist and economically worth mining — the long-run ceiling on supply, distinct from what is actually produced today. Nickel's reserves are moderately concentrated: 🇮🇩 Indonesia holds the most (42%), ahead of 🇦🇺 Australia (18%) and 🇧🇷 Brazil (12%). At today's extraction rate the known reserves would last roughly 36 years, so there is only a moderate runway before fresh capacity must come online. USGS 2024 · reserves as of 2023

● Mined — where it is dug up today

Mining is where ore leaves the ground — the stage most people equate with “the source”, though it is rarely where the supply risk actually concentrates. Output is moderately concentrated: 🇮🇩 Indonesia supplies 50%, with 🇵🇭 Philippines (11%) next. That is effectively a single-country dependence — one government's policy or one region's disruption can move the entire upstream. BGS World Mineral Statistics · mine production, 2000–2024 (USGS-validated)

● Refined / processed — where it becomes usable metal

Refining / processing converts ore into the metal or compound buyers actually purchase; it concentrates in fewer hands than mining and sits at the buyer's doorstep, which is why it is usually the true chokepoint. 🇮🇩 Indonesia processes 45% — moderately concentrated. Indonesia leads both mining and refining, so its grip is structural rather than a pure processing gate. On the buffers: 16% of supply is recovered from end-of-life recycling and substitutes are only partial, while the US imports 57% of what it consumes. BGS World Mineral Statistics 2024

● Recycling & substitutability — the mitigants (EU CRM)

16% of supply comes from recycling end-of-life products — a meaningful secondary source that lowers the supply-risk score. Substitutability is medium — partial substitutes exist.

● Traded — who ships it

Actual bilateral trade of the traded form, reconciled from UN Comtrade / CEPII BACI. Pick a year below — 2018–2024 measured, 2025* nowcast, 2026** directional scenario. The full 2002–2026 range is on the interactive atlas.

Context

A diversified, lower-risk dependency: Norway ~33%, Canada and Russia behind. The naive view points at the Netherlands (~39%); origin is spread across friendly producers - no single chokepoint.

Every figure on this page is computed from out/data.json and out/flows_2024.json by build_profiles.py — no hand-entered numbers.