The rule, and why it’s an upper bound
For every import flow: if the supplier genuinely mines the material (world mine share ≥ 5%) the origin stays the supplier; otherwise the supplier is treated as a refiner or hub, and the value is re-attributed to the material’s dominant mine. A country’s hidden dependence is the share of its imports re-attributed away from the apparent supplier.
First-order trace — an upper bound. We don’t observe each refiner’s ore sourcing, so all refiner-fronted flow is assigned to the single leading producer; real refiners blend ores, scrap and contracts. Read it as the scale of the refiner illusion, not a customs-grade origin. Computed by build_origin.py.
Hidden dependence by importer
Apparent #1 supplier vs the likely #1 origin (upper-bound attribution), and the share of imports that are refiner-fronted (sourced via a non-producer). Re-export hubs excluded; ranked by import value.
| # | Importer | Apparent #1 supplier | Likely #1 origin | refiner-fronted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇨🇳 China | 🇨🇩 Congo [DRC] 15% | 🇦🇺 Australia 28% → | 35% |
| 2 | 🇯🇵 Japan | 🇦🇺 Australia 56% | 🇦🇺 Australia 74% | 27% |
| 3 | 🇰🇷 South Korea | 🇦🇺 Australia 26% | 🇦🇺 Australia 55% | 38% |
| 4 | 🇺🇸 United States | 🇨🇱 Chile 33% | 🇨🇱 Chile 41% | 35% |
| 5 | 🇮🇳 India | 🇿🇦 South Africa 24% | 🇦🇺 Australia 35% → | 58% |
| 6 | 🇩🇪 Germany | 🇺🇸 United States 11% | 🇨🇱 Chile 27% → | 62% |
| 7 | 🇹🇷 Turkey | 🇷🇺 Russia 36% | 🇨🇱 Chile 38% → | 51% |
| 8 | 🇮🇹 Italy | 🇧🇬 Bulgaria 11% | 🇨🇱 Chile 49% → | 67% |
| 9 | 🇧🇷 Brazil | 🇨🇱 Chile 32% | 🇨🇱 Chile 32% | 15% |
| 10 | 🇻🇳 Vietnam | 🇦🇺 Australia 50% | 🇦🇺 Australia 57% | 38% |
| 11 | 🇲🇾 Malaysia | 🇦🇺 Australia 40% | 🇨🇱 Chile 40% → | 61% |
| 12 | 🇹🇭 Thailand | 🇨🇳 China 20% | 🇨🇱 Chile 48% → | 53% |
| 13 | 🇫🇷 France | 🇨🇱 Chile 20% | 🇨🇱 Chile 32% | 38% |
| 14 | 🇮🇩 Indonesia | 🇦🇺 Australia 48% | 🇦🇺 Australia 44% | 23% |
| 15 | 🇨🇭 Switzerland | 🇿🇲 Zambia 25% | 🇷🇺 Russia 33% → | 82% |
| 16 | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | 🇿🇦 South Africa 27% | 🇿🇦 South Africa 47% | 60% |
| 17 | 🇪🇸 Spain | 🇨🇩 Congo [DRC] 24% | 🇨🇩 Congo [DRC] 24% | 32% |
| 18 | 🇲🇽 Mexico | 🇺🇸 United States 56% | 🇺🇸 United States 52% | 24% |
| 19 | 🇨🇦 Canada | 🇺🇸 United States 44% | 🇺🇸 United States 41% | 19% |
| 20 | 🇸🇪 Sweden | 🇦🇺 Australia 16% | 🇨🇱 Chile 53% → | 63% |
| 21 | 🇵🇱 Poland | 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan 19% | 🇦🇺 Australia 47% → | 84% |
| 22 | 🇪🇬 Egypt | 🇨🇩 Congo [DRC] 37% | 🇨🇩 Congo [DRC] 37% | 36% |
| 23 | 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | 🇨🇩 Congo [DRC] 50% | 🇨🇩 Congo [DRC] 50% | 37% |
| 24 | 🇲🇰 Macedonia [FYROM] | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom 97% | 🇷🇺 Russia 53% → | 100% |
Where the mine stage is more concentrated than the trade stage
25 of 32 materials are more concentrated at the mine (production) than in trade — apparent-supplier diversity can overstate how diversified the underlying production is. Trade and mine concentration are different objects (multi-stage chains naturally disperse trade), so read this as a flag, not proof of disguise.
| Material | Apparent #1 supplier (trade HHI) | Traced #1 origin (mine HHI) | HHI gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gallium | 🇨🇳 China HHI 0.16 | 🇨🇳 China HHI 1.00 | +0.84 |
| Germanium | 🇨🇳 China HHI 0.16 | 🇨🇳 China HHI 0.81 | +0.65 |
| Cobalt oxides & hydroxides | 🇫🇮 Finland HHI 0.18 | 🇨🇩 Congo [DRC] HHI 0.62 | +0.43 |
| Natural graphite | 🇨🇳 China HHI 0.22 | 🇨🇳 China HHI 0.62 | +0.40 |
| Ferro-vanadium | 🇦🇹 Austria HHI 0.13 | 🇨🇳 China HHI 0.48 | +0.36 |
| Platinum, unwrought | 🇿🇦 South Africa HHI 0.17 | 🇿🇦 South Africa HHI 0.52 | +0.35 |
| Silicon, < 99.99% | 🇨🇳 China HHI 0.20 | 🇨🇳 China HHI 0.55 | +0.35 |
| Titanium, unwrought | 🇯🇵 Japan HHI 0.19 | 🇨🇳 China HHI 0.50 | +0.31 |
| Nickel, unwrought | 🇳🇴 Norway HHI 0.10 | 🇮🇩 Indonesia HHI 0.36 | +0.27 |
| Magnesium, unwrought | 🇨🇳 China HHI 0.54 | 🇨🇳 China HHI 0.78 | +0.24 |
| Ferro-niobium | 🇧🇷 Brazil HHI 0.60 | 🇧🇷 Brazil HHI 0.82 | +0.22 |
| Helium | 🇶🇦 Qatar HHI 0.15 | 🇺🇸 United States HHI 0.36 | +0.21 |
| Fluorspar, >97% CaF2 | 🇲🇽 Mexico HHI 0.25 | 🇨🇳 China HHI 0.46 | +0.21 |
| Arsenic | 🇨🇳 China HHI 0.18 | 🇵🇪 Peru HHI 0.38 | +0.20 |
| Palladium, unwrought | 🇿🇦 South Africa HHI 0.14 | 🇷🇺 Russia HHI 0.34 | +0.19 |
| Antimony, unwrought | 🇹🇯 Tajikistan HHI 0.17 | 🇨🇳 China HHI 0.31 | +0.14 |
| Tantalum, unwrought | 🇺🇸 United States HHI 0.16 | 🇨🇩 Congo [DRC] HHI 0.29 | +0.13 |
| Rare-earth permanent magnets | 🇨🇳 China HHI 0.42 | 🇨🇳 China HHI 0.54 | +0.11 |
| Tungsten, unwrought | 🇨🇳 China HHI 0.56 | 🇨🇳 China HHI 0.67 | +0.11 |
| Baryte | 🇮🇳 India HHI 0.11 | 🇮🇳 India HHI 0.20 | +0.09 |
| Coking coal | 🇦🇺 Australia HHI 0.21 | 🇦🇺 Australia HHI 0.30 | +0.09 |
| Phosphate rock | 🇯🇴 Jordan HHI 0.15 | 🇨🇳 China HHI 0.22 | +0.07 |
| Natural borates | 🇹🇷 Turkey HHI 0.38 | 🇹🇷 Turkey HHI 0.43 | +0.05 |
| Hafnium, unwrought | 🇨🇳 China HHI 0.16 | 🇦🇺 Australia HHI 0.21 | +0.05 |
| Refined copper cathodes | 🇨🇩 Congo [DRC] HHI 0.11 | 🇨🇱 Chile HHI 0.14 | +0.02 |
Computed from flows_2024.json + data.json → origin_trace.json.